Fire AggroTier 1
at DTR Massachusetts Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 67.4% | +11.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 47.6% | -1.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 64.4% | +9.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Water Genbu | 6.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.0% | +10.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.4 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Water Neos | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Water Triskit | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 43 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Grim Stalker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |